Peter Alexander
China 30 year veteran / https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-alexander-97630910 Joined Nostr at block 777177
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Peter Alexander
•
2d ago
Hope is not a strategy.
Treasury Sec. Bessent says China, U.S. have 'opportunity for a big deal' on trade https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/bessent-china-tariffs-trade-trump.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
Treasury Sec. Bessent says China, U.S. have 'opportunity for a big deal' on trade https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/23/bessent-china-tariffs-trade-trump.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
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Peter Alexander
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3d ago
China Morning Missive II
What can only be described as a complete turnaround on China in a single day could be very telling. What I’ve not yet added is how there’s been zero commentary within #China about how it is the Beijing power players are thinking about the issue of US trade.
The point remains though. The entire Trump team, including the President himself, is out there publicly in what can only be described as pulling back from the abyss.
Might this all be some sort of 4D chess play? Maybe. Then again, I am far more inclined to go with Occam’s Razor here. The answer to the about-face on trade with China is simply the understanding that China is the producer for nearly everything the US consumes. Cutting the supply off, almost entirely I might add, is set to (1) lead to higher
What can only be described as a complete turnaround on China in a single day could be very telling. What I’ve not yet added is how there’s been zero commentary within #China about how it is the Beijing power players are thinking about the issue of US trade.
The point remains though. The entire Trump team, including the President himself, is out there publicly in what can only be described as pulling back from the abyss.
Might this all be some sort of 4D chess play? Maybe. Then again, I am far more inclined to go with Occam’s Razor here. The answer to the about-face on trade with China is simply the understanding that China is the producer for nearly everything the US consumes. Cutting the supply off, almost entirely I might add, is set to (1) lead to higher
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Peter Alexander
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3d ago
China Morning Missive
Color me skeptical in regards to the news just out that Trump and Xi are now set to met in person in early May. Then again, the triple digit tariffs on all Chinese imports to America may already be having a material (negative) impact on the American economy.
What is known is that Sec Bessent held a private meeting with JP Morgan clients and stated that a deal with #China was in the making. See news story linked below.
I am not a believer in coincidence. This commentary from Bessent comes a single day after a White House meeting with the CEOs of Walmart, Costco and Target. Each of the companies has made the pilgrimage to China over the past month in an attempt to have their suppliers “eat” the Trump tariffs. In each case, the Chinese suppliers simply said “no”.
Color me skeptical in regards to the news just out that Trump and Xi are now set to met in person in early May. Then again, the triple digit tariffs on all Chinese imports to America may already be having a material (negative) impact on the American economy.
What is known is that Sec Bessent held a private meeting with JP Morgan clients and stated that a deal with #China was in the making. See news story linked below.
I am not a believer in coincidence. This commentary from Bessent comes a single day after a White House meeting with the CEOs of Walmart, Costco and Target. Each of the companies has made the pilgrimage to China over the past month in an attempt to have their suppliers “eat” the Trump tariffs. In each case, the Chinese suppliers simply said “no”.
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Peter Alexander
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3d ago
So this just flashed out in the news. Call me skeptical.
https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-and-xi-to-meet-in-early-may-20250422/amp/
https://www.forexlive.com/news/trump-and-xi-to-meet-in-early-may-20250422/amp/
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Peter Alexander
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3d ago
Back hashing it all out on Trump v China earlier today on CNBC Asia.
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Peter Alexander
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4d ago
China Morning Missive
Here is but one example of why an American policy of containment just won’t work with China. It might have been possible a decade-plus in the past, but not today.
Nvida is told to halt all chip shipments to China. This was expected going back to the first trade war in 2018. In fact, Trump’s biggest mistake was to loudly and publicly point out all of China’s weak points. This included access to tech. The Chinese heard, knew what Trump said was correct and with that action was taken.
For five years China prepared for what is now playing out. None should be surprised by Huawai announcing new, competitive chip technology nor with CATL with advances in batteries and EV charging stations. Remember DeepSeek? That is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/huawei-readies-new-ai-chip-mass-shipment-china-seeks-nvidia-alternatives-sources-2025-04-21/
Here is but one example of why an American policy of containment just won’t work with China. It might have been possible a decade-plus in the past, but not today.
Nvida is told to halt all chip shipments to China. This was expected going back to the first trade war in 2018. In fact, Trump’s biggest mistake was to loudly and publicly point out all of China’s weak points. This included access to tech. The Chinese heard, knew what Trump said was correct and with that action was taken.
For five years China prepared for what is now playing out. None should be surprised by Huawai announcing new, competitive chip technology nor with CATL with advances in batteries and EV charging stations. Remember DeepSeek? That is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/huawei-readies-new-ai-chip-mass-shipment-china-seeks-nvidia-alternatives-sources-2025-04-21/
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Peter Alexander
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4d ago
I love it and also agree with all of the points made. It might be a good idea to mention that my commentary on #China shouldn’t be taken as China = Good and America = Bad. My aim is just to highlight the current confines of the bilateral relationship given what decisions were made by both parties over the past couple of decades.
But again, I don’t just agree with your points, I’ll add one more. There was the decision by China to literally build islands in the South China Sea and claim they were for “scientific purposes”. A few years later, those islands were militarized.
Long story, short. China took complete advantage of the “international rules based order” and was enabled to do so due to America being so very preoccupied with the Global War on Terror. All it is that China received were strongly
But again, I don’t just agree with your points, I’ll add one more. There was the decision by China to literally build islands in the South China Sea and claim they were for “scientific purposes”. A few years later, those islands were militarized.
Long story, short. China took complete advantage of the “international rules based order” and was enabled to do so due to America being so very preoccupied with the Global War on Terror. All it is that China received were strongly
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Peter Alexander
•
5d ago
This so good to be up for air and able to post Notes here again.
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Peter Alexander
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5d ago
Here is another variable that doesn’t get enough attention.
America demands that China address its massive trade surplus. Ok, but what is it that America exports?
If you look into the official data, officially the largest exports out of America in 2024 are civilian aircraft parts ($123bn) and oil ($118bn).
Not included in the “official data” is the exports of weapon systems. For 2024 that totaled $319bn. Nearly triple the official top two categories. Great article on this provided below.
So, China has said it is open to addressing the trade issue, but America policy won’t be selling weapon systems to China. Moreover, basically everything that China does want to be from America is disallowed under “national security”. Can’t buy Nvidia chips, as example.
https://aje.io/lfiawn
America demands that China address its massive trade surplus. Ok, but what is it that America exports?
If you look into the official data, officially the largest exports out of America in 2024 are civilian aircraft parts ($123bn) and oil ($118bn).
Not included in the “official data” is the exports of weapon systems. For 2024 that totaled $319bn. Nearly triple the official top two categories. Great article on this provided below.
So, China has said it is open to addressing the trade issue, but America policy won’t be selling weapon systems to China. Moreover, basically everything that China does want to be from America is disallowed under “national security”. Can’t buy Nvidia chips, as example.
https://aje.io/lfiawn
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Peter Alexander
•
5d ago
Here is what is overlooked by the American policy wonks.
China doesn’t want a G7 or a G2 or any sort of “club” which includes some and excludes many.
It has always been the case where China telegraphs to each and every country that it is positively fine if the choice is made to prioritize America over China in terms of a geopolitical relationship. The Chinese outlook is that siding with one doesn’t necessitate making an enemy of the other. #duality
China doesn’t want a G7 or a G2 or any sort of “club” which includes some and excludes many.
It has always been the case where China telegraphs to each and every country that it is positively fine if the choice is made to prioritize America over China in terms of a geopolitical relationship. The Chinese outlook is that siding with one doesn’t necessitate making an enemy of the other. #duality
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Peter Alexander
•
5d ago
2001 George W Bush “you are either with us or with the terrorists”
2025 Donald J Trump “we might force countries to choose between the US and China”
We’ve all seen the game before and, arguably, America had far greater leverage 25 years ago. Arguably. And it still turned out horribly wrong.
Over the past decade and a half, the US has spent blood and treasure on a series of misadventures. China, on the other hand, has deployed trade surpluses to build.
2025 Donald J Trump “we might force countries to choose between the US and China”
We’ve all seen the game before and, arguably, America had far greater leverage 25 years ago. Arguably. And it still turned out horribly wrong.
Over the past decade and a half, the US has spent blood and treasure on a series of misadventures. China, on the other hand, has deployed trade surpluses to build.
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Peter Alexander
•
5d ago
No question that retail demand locally for gold has taken root @npub1ltz38
There’s also been a rather clear signal from the powers-that-be for retail to allocate into gold.
Decent Reuters article on the subject where local Chinese gold ETFs have seen decent demand. Still, the Chinese can be notorious for chasing the “latest thing” in terms of investing.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinese-gold-etfs-april-inflows-surpass-first-quarter-total-wgc-says-2025-04-14/
There’s also been a rather clear signal from the powers-that-be for retail to allocate into gold.
Decent Reuters article on the subject where local Chinese gold ETFs have seen decent demand. Still, the Chinese can be notorious for chasing the “latest thing” in terms of investing.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinese-gold-etfs-april-inflows-surpass-first-quarter-total-wgc-says-2025-04-14/
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Peter Alexander
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5d ago
China Morning Missive
Nothing at all surprising about this move, even as the chorus continues to call for “fiscal stimulus”. The fact that China’s central bank remains cautious on rates tells you all you need to know.
Pragmatism is the name of the game. Don’t expect any material moves to support the local economy until Beijing has a clearer understanding of what, exactly, the Trump administration wants from this trade war.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/china-set-leave-lending-rates-steady-tariffs-raise-easing-bets-2025-04-18/
Nothing at all surprising about this move, even as the chorus continues to call for “fiscal stimulus”. The fact that China’s central bank remains cautious on rates tells you all you need to know.
Pragmatism is the name of the game. Don’t expect any material moves to support the local economy until Beijing has a clearer understanding of what, exactly, the Trump administration wants from this trade war.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/china-set-leave-lending-rates-steady-tariffs-raise-easing-bets-2025-04-18/
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Peter Alexander
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5d ago
Trying something new in an attempt to be more production on Nostr
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Peter Alexander
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1w ago
TikTok is the canary in the China trade war coal mine.
If the Trump team is unable to secure a deal on the social media platform then the two parties remain at a stalemate.
The Chinese know how central TikTok is to a wide swath of Americans. If no deal is to be secured, as part of a much larger trade deal, then the Chinese will just burn it to the ground. Once that path is taken, the Chinese will blame the outcome on Trump.
I will also repeat that the Chinese side hasn’t even begun to play hardball with Trump. Once you see headlines about “export controls” on items beyond rare earths then you will know the game has been taken to the next level.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-says-china-has-reached-out-tariffs-tiktok-deal-may-wait-2025-04-17/
If the Trump team is unable to secure a deal on the social media platform then the two parties remain at a stalemate.
The Chinese know how central TikTok is to a wide swath of Americans. If no deal is to be secured, as part of a much larger trade deal, then the Chinese will just burn it to the ground. Once that path is taken, the Chinese will blame the outcome on Trump.
I will also repeat that the Chinese side hasn’t even begun to play hardball with Trump. Once you see headlines about “export controls” on items beyond rare earths then you will know the game has been taken to the next level.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-says-china-has-reached-out-tariffs-tiktok-deal-may-wait-2025-04-17/
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Peter Alexander
•
1w ago
Not that this #China strategy should come as a surprise. It’s the fact that Bessent and the entire Trump team actually view the strategy as being “doable”.
When reviewing which country represents the largest trading partner of other countries China has surpassed the US years ago.
The only solution is for the US and China to recognize the world as it is rather than the world they wish it to be. The solution will demand collaboration. That, however, isn’t the American position …… at least not at the moment.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-plans-to-use-tariff-negotiations-to-isolate-china-177d1528?st=ynEXsW&reflink=article_copyURL_share
When reviewing which country represents the largest trading partner of other countries China has surpassed the US years ago.
The only solution is for the US and China to recognize the world as it is rather than the world they wish it to be. The solution will demand collaboration. That, however, isn’t the American position …… at least not at the moment.
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-plans-to-use-tariff-negotiations-to-isolate-china-177d1528?st=ynEXsW&reflink=article_copyURL_share
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Peter Alexander
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1w ago
Been keeping busy but I so need to get back here with Notes. So much to share on the #China front. For now though there is this 7pm Tuesday night (today)
@npub1s5yq6 @npub1cj94e themes - and more - which you both addressed last week on your podcast.
@npub1s5yq6 @npub1cj94e themes - and more - which you both addressed last week on your podcast.
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Peter Alexander
•
2w ago
China has zero American fucks to give.
Think the Trump team will be waiting a bit longer for that inevitable “call from Beijing”.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-xi-visit-vietnam-malaysia-cambodia-april-14-18-xinhua-reports-2025-04-11/
Think the Trump team will be waiting a bit longer for that inevitable “call from Beijing”.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-xi-visit-vietnam-malaysia-cambodia-april-14-18-xinhua-reports-2025-04-11/
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Peter Alexander
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2w ago
What it’s means when you use the phrase “The Definition of Insanity”.
And pardon my vulgarity, but it has really devolved into a dick measuring contest at this stage.
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-trump-trade-tariff-war-98676e74?st=pACsqa&reflink=article_copyURL_share
And pardon my vulgarity, but it has really devolved into a dick measuring contest at this stage.
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-trump-trade-tariff-war-98676e74?st=pACsqa&reflink=article_copyURL_share
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Peter Alexander
•
2w ago
So it appears that I’m waking up to the “Trump blinked”.
Between the erratic bond market and #China turning the screws, we now know where the line in the sand is.
No going back from here.
Between the erratic bond market and #China turning the screws, we now know where the line in the sand is.
No going back from here.
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Peter Alexander
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2w ago
I cannot stress enough. No one, average folks, here in #China is talking about tariffs or even stressing.
Everyone is just going about their daily routine. It’s just another day.
Everyone is just going about their daily routine. It’s just another day.
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Peter Alexander
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2w ago
The US cannot win the trade war with #China
Walmart pulling forward guidance tells you everything you need to know. Price hikes on all things out of China are being passed on to either the American buyer (Walmart) or the American consumer.
And I’ll also repeat again. China hasn’t even begun playing hardball. Export controls will be the point when that changes.
Walmart pulling forward guidance tells you everything you need to know. Price hikes on all things out of China are being passed on to either the American buyer (Walmart) or the American consumer.
And I’ll also repeat again. China hasn’t even begun playing hardball. Export controls will be the point when that changes.
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Peter Alexander
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2w ago
Nonstop action. Seems like I haven’t been off a video call with people in the States since “Liberation Day”.
China. China. China. Essentially 90% of the hot takes across social media are completely off base.
The power players in Beijing won’t flinch and Chinese producers/manufactures are passing the entirety of the tariffs directly onto their American buyers.
China. China. China. Essentially 90% of the hot takes across social media are completely off base.
The power players in Beijing won’t flinch and Chinese producers/manufactures are passing the entirety of the tariffs directly onto their American buyers.
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Peter Alexander
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3w ago
As expected. TikTok gets another 75 day extension.
You tell me who has the leverage? If you can’t even bring #China to the table over TikTok what do you honestly think you see as possible in the bigger picture.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/trump-tiktok-sale-deadline-looms-us-looks-deal-2025-04-04/
You tell me who has the leverage? If you can’t even bring #China to the table over TikTok what do you honestly think you see as possible in the bigger picture.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/trump-tiktok-sale-deadline-looms-us-looks-deal-2025-04-04/
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Peter Alexander
•
3w ago
Meanwhile ……
Tick Tock, next block.
Tick Tock, next block.
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Peter Alexander
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3w ago
Important to keep in mind that China hasn’t even started playing hardball.
This is just the obvious response to “Liberation Day” activities.
This goal for now in Beijing is to find out what cards Trump is playing with. How far does he intend to go. When that road ends, then China drops the hammer.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/04/04/trump-tariff-live-updates-retaliation-trade-war.html
This is just the obvious response to “Liberation Day” activities.
This goal for now in Beijing is to find out what cards Trump is playing with. How far does he intend to go. When that road ends, then China drops the hammer.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/04/04/trump-tariff-live-updates-retaliation-trade-war.html
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Peter Alexander
•
3w ago
Back with a China Morning Missive
This one is simple. There will be no TikTok deal if Trump makes it a quid pro quo.
The Chinese know he could just as easily reverse any agreement made. I’m expecting the Chinese to refuse to play ball and the best case scenario is for the can to be kicked down the road.
60% of ByteDance is foreign owned. The Chinese would rather let it all burn to the ground than submit to demands by Trump.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-says-china-could-get-tariff-relief-if-it-approves-tiktok-deal-2025-04-03/
This one is simple. There will be no TikTok deal if Trump makes it a quid pro quo.
The Chinese know he could just as easily reverse any agreement made. I’m expecting the Chinese to refuse to play ball and the best case scenario is for the can to be kicked down the road.
60% of ByteDance is foreign owned. The Chinese would rather let it all burn to the ground than submit to demands by Trump.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-says-china-could-get-tariff-relief-if-it-approves-tiktok-deal-2025-04-03/
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Peter Alexander
•
3w ago
Fuck me. I’m exhausted.
Three weeks of pure running and gunning.
Love Nostr. Love the Nostr fam.
Three weeks of pure running and gunning.
Love Nostr. Love the Nostr fam.
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Peter Alexander
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4w ago
Was back on CNBC last week and I remain gobsmacked at the 180-degree turn in sentiment towards China. Honestly, it wasn’t even a year ago and a clip of mine like this would have a comment section filled with nothing but “how much does the Party pay you?”
I’m beginning to think that years upon years of trotting out the same cast of characters, all of whom promised that China was on the precipice of collapse, no longer carries any credibility.
I mean, there does need to come a time when accountability finally takes hold, yes?
I’m beginning to think that years upon years of trotting out the same cast of characters, all of whom promised that China was on the precipice of collapse, no longer carries any credibility.
I mean, there does need to come a time when accountability finally takes hold, yes?
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Peter Alexander
•
1mo ago
China Morning Missive
I’m taking the under on this bet. What does make me laugh though is that it was just last week that the media was saying, first, that Trump and Xi would meet in Beijing in June. Then reports surfaced that Trump might be headed to China “as early as next month”. Now we have this.
Here’s what I’m confident is actually going on.
First, it is more than reasonable to expect that there’s been a degree of backchanneling between the two countries in an attempt to secure something tangible so that the two leaders can meet. The difference, however, is that Beijing isn’t playing the same games as Canada, the EU or the other Trump targets.
Beijing is all but certainly slow rolling any sort of commitment to Trump. The longer China can drag out these backchanneling efforts, the
I’m taking the under on this bet. What does make me laugh though is that it was just last week that the media was saying, first, that Trump and Xi would meet in Beijing in June. Then reports surfaced that Trump might be headed to China “as early as next month”. Now we have this.
Here’s what I’m confident is actually going on.
First, it is more than reasonable to expect that there’s been a degree of backchanneling between the two countries in an attempt to secure something tangible so that the two leaders can meet. The difference, however, is that Beijing isn’t playing the same games as Canada, the EU or the other Trump targets.
Beijing is all but certainly slow rolling any sort of commitment to Trump. The longer China can drag out these backchanneling efforts, the
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China Morning Missive
Looks as though Beijing is trying to bring out the big guns. Late last night came a detailed directive specifically targeting increasing household consumption.
Truth be told, this is really nothing more than policy makers attempting to jawbone the Chinese citizenry. That said, what does look to be the primary focus is a revving up of the “wealth effect”.
What I mean by this is specific wording in the directive that both property and stocks are to be supported by central government policy. Explains why the Chinese stock market decently jumped on Friday. Expecting more once markets open here in less than an hour.
Again, not the biggest fan of the SCMP, but this article does do a decent job of laying out the plans announced.
https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/article/3302590/china-unveils-30-point-toolbox-lift-consumption
Looks as though Beijing is trying to bring out the big guns. Late last night came a detailed directive specifically targeting increasing household consumption.
Truth be told, this is really nothing more than policy makers attempting to jawbone the Chinese citizenry. That said, what does look to be the primary focus is a revving up of the “wealth effect”.
What I mean by this is specific wording in the directive that both property and stocks are to be supported by central government policy. Explains why the Chinese stock market decently jumped on Friday. Expecting more once markets open here in less than an hour.
Again, not the biggest fan of the SCMP, but this article does do a decent job of laying out the plans announced.
https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/article/3302590/china-unveils-30-point-toolbox-lift-consumption
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
So it would appear as though American “industrial policy” is really nothing more than regulatory capture. I mean, how else is Sam Altman supposed to justify his BILLIONS of what may just be a complete waste of money.
The fact that OpenAI of all groups is pushing against the open source DeepSeek model shows, at least to me, that even after two months there is no competitive response.
Dammed no matter what option he takes, so Altman resorts to wrapping himself in the Red, White and Blue.
https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/13/openai-calls-deepseek-state-controlled-calls-for-bans-on-prc-produced-models/
The fact that OpenAI of all groups is pushing against the open source DeepSeek model shows, at least to me, that even after two months there is no competitive response.
Dammed no matter what option he takes, so Altman resorts to wrapping himself in the Red, White and Blue.
https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/13/openai-calls-deepseek-state-controlled-calls-for-bans-on-prc-produced-models/
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China Morning Missive
Not exactly sure that Trump has played all that much of a role in the recent China equities rally. The more I think on this thesis the more I see it as pretty nonsensical.
There’s no question that the Hong Kong market has returned to life after multiple years of underperformance. The driver, however, has been a return of retail Chinese investors allocating to risk.
The catalyst for this return is the “DeepSeek” trade. Ever since that AI model ravaged its way into the global zeitgeist, Chinese investors decided to plow head on into all tech related equities. Perhaps no better example of this than Alibaba.
There’s also the fact that Chinese stocks have been trading at insanely cheap valuations, especially as compared to their peers in the United States. The only question which remains is whether, this time,
Not exactly sure that Trump has played all that much of a role in the recent China equities rally. The more I think on this thesis the more I see it as pretty nonsensical.
There’s no question that the Hong Kong market has returned to life after multiple years of underperformance. The driver, however, has been a return of retail Chinese investors allocating to risk.
The catalyst for this return is the “DeepSeek” trade. Ever since that AI model ravaged its way into the global zeitgeist, Chinese investors decided to plow head on into all tech related equities. Perhaps no better example of this than Alibaba.
There’s also the fact that Chinese stocks have been trading at insanely cheap valuations, especially as compared to their peers in the United States. The only question which remains is whether, this time,
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
While I’m sure David Bailey is a smart guy, he really has to pump the breaks on all of these “China is buying BTC” posts.
Much as I shared last week, I’m fairly confident that China has been buying BTC for a number of years. Not in any size mind you, but to provide optionality. To borrow a phrase, China has been STAYING HUMBLE AND STACKING SATS. This is just how the Chinese decision makers do things here.
What I can promise you is that no one is waking up anytime in the near future to find “China bidding Bitcoin in size”.
Much as I shared last week, I’m fairly confident that China has been buying BTC for a number of years. Not in any size mind you, but to provide optionality. To borrow a phrase, China has been STAYING HUMBLE AND STACKING SATS. This is just how the Chinese decision makers do things here.
What I can promise you is that no one is waking up anytime in the near future to find “China bidding Bitcoin in size”.
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China Morning Missive
Here is everything you need to know about the power dynamic between American and #China
Senior executives from what is probably the single largest importer of Chinese goods, Walmart, traveled to meet with suppliers. The company’s objective was to “request” that its suppliers assume the full price impact of the Trump tariffs on China. Keep in mind that Walmart would have in place long term contracts with its Chinese suppliers meaning that it was seeking to renegotiate the terms of those contracts ….. unilaterally.
While the media’s focus has shifted towards the China’s Ministry of Commerce “dressing down” the Walmart executives, the real issue is a demonstration of just how much power China has over the Trump tariff campaign.
Here’s a mental exercise. What would happen to inventory levels at Walmart – or Amazon for that matter – if
Here is everything you need to know about the power dynamic between American and #China
Senior executives from what is probably the single largest importer of Chinese goods, Walmart, traveled to meet with suppliers. The company’s objective was to “request” that its suppliers assume the full price impact of the Trump tariffs on China. Keep in mind that Walmart would have in place long term contracts with its Chinese suppliers meaning that it was seeking to renegotiate the terms of those contracts ….. unilaterally.
While the media’s focus has shifted towards the China’s Ministry of Commerce “dressing down” the Walmart executives, the real issue is a demonstration of just how much power China has over the Trump tariff campaign.
Here’s a mental exercise. What would happen to inventory levels at Walmart – or Amazon for that matter – if
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China Morning Missive
This is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg and it was probably a given that #China would first retaliate with agriculture tariffs.
Where China can cause real pain, as just one example, is with a prohibition of medicinal exports to the United States including antibiotics. China has a stranglehold over the global supply chain not just for antibiotics, but for their active pharmaceutical ingredients. Think back on the mayhem caused in 2020 when supplies of personal protective equipment (PPE) dried up. That was China.
Again, this is just one small, albeit important, example.
The pain that China can inflict on America isn’t from putting tariffs on imports. The pain will come if, or perhaps when, China decides to put prohibitions on exports to America. Think rare earth minerals.
https://apnews.com/article/china-tariffs-trump-agriculture-farms-midwest-247a85e2cf5b1fd54de4afbf2a30de64
This is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg and it was probably a given that #China would first retaliate with agriculture tariffs.
Where China can cause real pain, as just one example, is with a prohibition of medicinal exports to the United States including antibiotics. China has a stranglehold over the global supply chain not just for antibiotics, but for their active pharmaceutical ingredients. Think back on the mayhem caused in 2020 when supplies of personal protective equipment (PPE) dried up. That was China.
Again, this is just one small, albeit important, example.
The pain that China can inflict on America isn’t from putting tariffs on imports. The pain will come if, or perhaps when, China decides to put prohibitions on exports to America. Think rare earth minerals.
https://apnews.com/article/china-tariffs-trump-agriculture-farms-midwest-247a85e2cf5b1fd54de4afbf2a30de64
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China Afternoon Missive
Gauging the direction of certain Chinese asset classes isn’t all that difficult. A benefit of the country having what is, in reality, a closed capital account. There’re equities, fixed income, cash or property.
There is certainly some leakage into other markets, such as we are seeing of late with Chinese flows into Hong Kong stocks. Overall, however, these are either a temporary or marginal flows of funds. The vast majority moves in and out of the four highlighted above.
The reason for bringing this issue up is that Chinese government bonds are now reversing the very trend that raged all last year. Bonds are being sold, and stocks are being bought.
So much was made throughout 2024 that the yields of Chinese government bonds were in “freefall” – so said the business headlines and every macro trader – and
Gauging the direction of certain Chinese asset classes isn’t all that difficult. A benefit of the country having what is, in reality, a closed capital account. There’re equities, fixed income, cash or property.
There is certainly some leakage into other markets, such as we are seeing of late with Chinese flows into Hong Kong stocks. Overall, however, these are either a temporary or marginal flows of funds. The vast majority moves in and out of the four highlighted above.
The reason for bringing this issue up is that Chinese government bonds are now reversing the very trend that raged all last year. Bonds are being sold, and stocks are being bought.
So much was made throughout 2024 that the yields of Chinese government bonds were in “freefall” – so said the business headlines and every macro trader – and
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China Morning Missive
Once again, deflation in #China is back in the headlines. The direction of pricing shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone given the continued path of “shock to the system” taken by policy makers.
The only real question is whether these very same policy makers are willing to allow for real pain to persist at the household level for yet another year.
While there is evidence that China’s economy is now past peak pessimism, there remains deep concerns if a turnaround is truly underway. I’ve no idea and, quite frankly, I doubt the leadership in Beijing has any idea either.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/03/09/inflation-china-consumer-price-index-drops-below-zero-in-february.html
Once again, deflation in #China is back in the headlines. The direction of pricing shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone given the continued path of “shock to the system” taken by policy makers.
The only real question is whether these very same policy makers are willing to allow for real pain to persist at the household level for yet another year.
While there is evidence that China’s economy is now past peak pessimism, there remains deep concerns if a turnaround is truly underway. I’ve no idea and, quite frankly, I doubt the leadership in Beijing has any idea either.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/03/09/inflation-china-consumer-price-index-drops-below-zero-in-february.html
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China Morning Missive.
With the greatest respect to Mr Bailey, what in God’s name are you talking about?
Whoever is his source is simply looking to “talk up their book”. Moreover, this isn’t how the Chinese operate. My working thesis has centered on the Chinese initiating a relatively small position back in 2021 using the miner ban announcement to do so at lower pricing.
This plays to the typical Chinese behavior of building optionality and at an appropriate time. A position size that is irrelevant if price goes to zero, but is sized enough to have some degree of impact if price were to move higher.
What can be stated with near full confidence though is that you’ll never hear a word about whatever strategy Beijing has or is considering.
Anyway, have a great weekend all.
With the greatest respect to Mr Bailey, what in God’s name are you talking about?
Whoever is his source is simply looking to “talk up their book”. Moreover, this isn’t how the Chinese operate. My working thesis has centered on the Chinese initiating a relatively small position back in 2021 using the miner ban announcement to do so at lower pricing.
This plays to the typical Chinese behavior of building optionality and at an appropriate time. A position size that is irrelevant if price goes to zero, but is sized enough to have some degree of impact if price were to move higher.
What can be stated with near full confidence though is that you’ll never hear a word about whatever strategy Beijing has or is considering.
Anyway, have a great weekend all.
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China Afternoon Missive
One theme which has always amused me is just how many “experts” have predicted the collapse of the economy in #China Decades of calls none of which have landed.
Look around these days and it appears as though the G7 is where economic calamity is headed. European bond yields are blowing out for the second day in a row.
One theme which has always amused me is just how many “experts” have predicted the collapse of the economy in #China Decades of calls none of which have landed.
Look around these days and it appears as though the G7 is where economic calamity is headed. European bond yields are blowing out for the second day in a row.
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
The drumbeat of Chinese AI models continues in unrelenting fashion.
Now we have Manus and expect to see this name and endless commentary over the come day.
https://pandaily.com/chinese-team-unveils-ai-agent-manus/
Now we have Manus and expect to see this name and endless commentary over the come day.
https://pandaily.com/chinese-team-unveils-ai-agent-manus/
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China Morning Missive
Talk about regulatory capture, only this time it’s on the sovereign level.
Pressure was applied by the Trump administration and as a result CK Holdings, a Hong Kong company, exited from its operational contracts to run the Panama Canal.
The new owners is nonother than a BlackRock led consortium. Not that I am at all surprised.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/ck-hutchison-sell-80-stake-hutchison-ports-group-1777-billion-deal-2025-03-04/
Talk about regulatory capture, only this time it’s on the sovereign level.
Pressure was applied by the Trump administration and as a result CK Holdings, a Hong Kong company, exited from its operational contracts to run the Panama Canal.
The new owners is nonother than a BlackRock led consortium. Not that I am at all surprised.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/ck-hutchison-sell-80-stake-hutchison-ports-group-1777-billion-deal-2025-03-04/
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China Morning Missive
This is a truly fantastic article. A look at the sources of America’s trade deficit. What is most interesting is that for the month of January, the US recorded a massive – and record - $153bn deficit. That’s after reporting another, initial, record in December of $123bn.
Again, that’s the trade deficit for goods for a single month.
This was to be expected as American buyers (think Amazon and Walmart) would have clamored to finalize purchase agreements in advance of the Trump tariffs. It does, however, also go to show just how dangerously dependent American remains on other markets/countries for all that it consumes.
Much as I’ve shared, even quite publicly, America produces virtually nothing. China produces virtually everything. And the point of Vietnam coming in second overall in terms of the US trade deficit goes to show just
This is a truly fantastic article. A look at the sources of America’s trade deficit. What is most interesting is that for the month of January, the US recorded a massive – and record - $153bn deficit. That’s after reporting another, initial, record in December of $123bn.
Again, that’s the trade deficit for goods for a single month.
This was to be expected as American buyers (think Amazon and Walmart) would have clamored to finalize purchase agreements in advance of the Trump tariffs. It does, however, also go to show just how dangerously dependent American remains on other markets/countries for all that it consumes.
Much as I’ve shared, even quite publicly, America produces virtually nothing. China produces virtually everything. And the point of Vietnam coming in second overall in terms of the US trade deficit goes to show just
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China Weekend Missive
Quite the contrast in geopolitical posturing over the past several days. While everyone has been intensely focused on the diplomatic breakdown at the White House, a completely different - and strategically relevant - meeting took place in Beijing.
Just hours before the now infamous Trump/Zelensky meeting came reports of Xi Jinping convening his own meeting. His guest ….. Russian security envoy Sergei Shoigu. The messaging was direct and clear. While I’m not the biggest fan of the SCMP, you would be well served to read the article linked below in its entirety.
Why I’m making that suggestion is given that there’s been little reporting of this meeting elsewhere. I suppose to be expected though as the entire affair in Washington has sucked out all the air out of the American discourse.
All of this, the contrasting outcomes of the
Quite the contrast in geopolitical posturing over the past several days. While everyone has been intensely focused on the diplomatic breakdown at the White House, a completely different - and strategically relevant - meeting took place in Beijing.
Just hours before the now infamous Trump/Zelensky meeting came reports of Xi Jinping convening his own meeting. His guest ….. Russian security envoy Sergei Shoigu. The messaging was direct and clear. While I’m not the biggest fan of the SCMP, you would be well served to read the article linked below in its entirety.
Why I’m making that suggestion is given that there’s been little reporting of this meeting elsewhere. I suppose to be expected though as the entire affair in Washington has sucked out all the air out of the American discourse.
All of this, the contrasting outcomes of the
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China (long-ish) Morning Missive
There’s a big meeting in Beijing next week and a meeting where expectations are being set for some sort of massive fiscal stimulus. There’ve even been some expecting a fiscal injection of 10% of GDP
Allow me to state unequivocally that there is no “bazooka”. There never was one and there never will be.
I will repeat once again, Keynes is Dead in China.
It is true that the Beijing policy Mandarins will announce an expansion of the annual fiscal deficit. Last year the target was 3.0% then raised to 3.8% at mid-year. For 2025 the expectation is around 4%.
A number of different categories of bond issuances will also be announced. A trillion or so Renminbi will be at the discretion of the central government. The bulk, however (+Rmb4.0tr), will address local government balance sheet
There’s a big meeting in Beijing next week and a meeting where expectations are being set for some sort of massive fiscal stimulus. There’ve even been some expecting a fiscal injection of 10% of GDP
Allow me to state unequivocally that there is no “bazooka”. There never was one and there never will be.
I will repeat once again, Keynes is Dead in China.
It is true that the Beijing policy Mandarins will announce an expansion of the annual fiscal deficit. Last year the target was 3.0% then raised to 3.8% at mid-year. For 2025 the expectation is around 4%.
A number of different categories of bond issuances will also be announced. A trillion or so Renminbi will be at the discretion of the central government. The bulk, however (+Rmb4.0tr), will address local government balance sheet
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
China Morning Missive
Again, I’ll state, #China is the next in line in the Trump world’s foreign policy agenda. Central to that will be Taiwan and it is a bit surprising to find that Trump, the man, is choosing to keep his cards close to his chest.
Having said that, I am hearing increased chatter that “Taiwan is in play”. What I don’t yet know is what that exactly means. Will Trump go forth an renunciate the “One China Policy” throwing full American weight behind Taiwan OR will Trump just leave Taiwan to its own devices and view the issue as one that needs to be settled by Beijing and Taipei leaders.
The odds, at least as I see it, would point to the latter. Force Taiwan to operate “independently” which would require a massive build up of arms. And where would they purchase
Again, I’ll state, #China is the next in line in the Trump world’s foreign policy agenda. Central to that will be Taiwan and it is a bit surprising to find that Trump, the man, is choosing to keep his cards close to his chest.
Having said that, I am hearing increased chatter that “Taiwan is in play”. What I don’t yet know is what that exactly means. Will Trump go forth an renunciate the “One China Policy” throwing full American weight behind Taiwan OR will Trump just leave Taiwan to its own devices and view the issue as one that needs to be settled by Beijing and Taipei leaders.
The odds, at least as I see it, would point to the latter. Force Taiwan to operate “independently” which would require a massive build up of arms. And where would they purchase
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Peter Alexander
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1mo ago
Well, this was a surprise. Jumped on Bloomberg this morning and ended up doing a long-ish #China interview.
The editors actually decided to put the entire interview online. That never happens especially with me given the messages I focus on and the very direct nature in how I present those messages.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-02-26/z-ben-advisors-alexander-us-can-t-strong-arm-china-video
The editors actually decided to put the entire interview online. That never happens especially with me given the messages I focus on and the very direct nature in how I present those messages.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-02-26/z-ben-advisors-alexander-us-can-t-strong-arm-china-video
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Morning Missive
It’s been an exercise of drinking from a firehose this past week on the issue of #China At every turn, I need to remind myself that there is a unique difference between rhetoric and real action.
What is clear is that then entire Trump team is no turning to the main event. China vs. America. All other priority foreign agenda items are now in process. China is next.
But here’s the issue. America is “boxed-in” fiscally. The folks in Beijing know this and know this very well and are “lying in wait”. The only point that I can raise at this time with any real confidence is that volatility throughout global markets is about to spike and spike hard.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ustr-proposes-charging-chinese-ships-up-15-million-enter-us-ports-2025-02-24/
It’s been an exercise of drinking from a firehose this past week on the issue of #China At every turn, I need to remind myself that there is a unique difference between rhetoric and real action.
What is clear is that then entire Trump team is no turning to the main event. China vs. America. All other priority foreign agenda items are now in process. China is next.
But here’s the issue. America is “boxed-in” fiscally. The folks in Beijing know this and know this very well and are “lying in wait”. The only point that I can raise at this time with any real confidence is that volatility throughout global markets is about to spike and spike hard.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ustr-proposes-charging-chinese-ships-up-15-million-enter-us-ports-2025-02-24/
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Morning Missive
The People’s Bank of China made the decision, once again, to hold firm on its benchmark lending rate. Not at all a surprise.
Once again, I will reiterate that “Keynes is Dead in China”. Keep this in mind every time you see some commentator or some podcast discussion where they yammer on about some mythical “China money printer”. If you do ever hear that particular talking point, know that the people making the comments have no clue as to what, exactly, is taking place.
Is China issuing gobs of debt? Yes, yes it is. The proceeds from nearly all of that issuance, however, is being deployed to retire opaque and costly local government/municipal debt. Debt swap, or debt restructuring. Call it what you will, but do not call it fiscal stimulus or money printing. China is simply working through the process
The People’s Bank of China made the decision, once again, to hold firm on its benchmark lending rate. Not at all a surprise.
Once again, I will reiterate that “Keynes is Dead in China”. Keep this in mind every time you see some commentator or some podcast discussion where they yammer on about some mythical “China money printer”. If you do ever hear that particular talking point, know that the people making the comments have no clue as to what, exactly, is taking place.
Is China issuing gobs of debt? Yes, yes it is. The proceeds from nearly all of that issuance, however, is being deployed to retire opaque and costly local government/municipal debt. Debt swap, or debt restructuring. Call it what you will, but do not call it fiscal stimulus or money printing. China is simply working through the process
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Morning Missive
Did anyone expect #China to take up the mantle for an open-source AI revolution? Great to see, no doubt, but there’s also the real potential that the recent AI moves in China will be catastrophic for all American AI platforms.
To start, I do want to stress that the sudden arrival of China AI platforms wasn’t at all planned. What is playing out here on the ground is nothing more than a reaction (albeit very quick) to the DeepSeek model released the other week. Even the Beijing leadership is having to react in real time as was clearly evident with the hastily convened Tech CEO meeting yesterday.
What has been noticed here is how the American competitors reacted. Concern bordering on fear. Open-sourced models are potentially an existential threat to the likes of OpenAI at least to the underlying business rationale
Did anyone expect #China to take up the mantle for an open-source AI revolution? Great to see, no doubt, but there’s also the real potential that the recent AI moves in China will be catastrophic for all American AI platforms.
To start, I do want to stress that the sudden arrival of China AI platforms wasn’t at all planned. What is playing out here on the ground is nothing more than a reaction (albeit very quick) to the DeepSeek model released the other week. Even the Beijing leadership is having to react in real time as was clearly evident with the hastily convened Tech CEO meeting yesterday.
What has been noticed here is how the American competitors reacted. Concern bordering on fear. Open-sourced models are potentially an existential threat to the likes of OpenAI at least to the underlying business rationale
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Morning Missive
Trump is once again poking and prodding #China over the issue of Taiwan. For background, the entire tri-party relationship has operated for four decades under two core principles.
First, “One China” which is defined as the governments in Beijing and Taipei agreeing that there is only one China. The point of disagreement is over which is the rightful government.
Second is “strategic ambiguity”. This principal has historically centered on America’s diplomatic role in the tri-party relationship but is fully dependent on (1) all parties maintaining the status quo, (2) Beijing seeking peaceful means for reunification and (3) Taipei refraining from claiming independence. It is this principle that has been fully disavowed by American policy.
For myself, this decision was actually made back in 2018 with the passage into law of the Taiwan Travel Act. This most recent policy shift
Trump is once again poking and prodding #China over the issue of Taiwan. For background, the entire tri-party relationship has operated for four decades under two core principles.
First, “One China” which is defined as the governments in Beijing and Taipei agreeing that there is only one China. The point of disagreement is over which is the rightful government.
Second is “strategic ambiguity”. This principal has historically centered on America’s diplomatic role in the tri-party relationship but is fully dependent on (1) all parties maintaining the status quo, (2) Beijing seeking peaceful means for reunification and (3) Taipei refraining from claiming independence. It is this principle that has been fully disavowed by American policy.
For myself, this decision was actually made back in 2018 with the passage into law of the Taiwan Travel Act. This most recent policy shift
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
Just wanted to mention that when I post Notes they will be far lengthier than is probably deemed “socially acceptable” here on Nostr.
The reason for the length is due to my core belief that when addressing any current event issue, it is the responsibility of the author to provide adequate context for the points being made.
I suspect that this sort of thinking reflects my age as well. Thought I’d make mention given the feedback I’ve received.
The reason for the length is due to my core belief that when addressing any current event issue, it is the responsibility of the author to provide adequate context for the points being made.
I suspect that this sort of thinking reflects my age as well. Thought I’d make mention given the feedback I’ve received.
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
Next open source project? What did I miss? Did OpenAI go “open source” already?
I’m any event, if it weren’t for DeepSeek there is no way that Altman would be moving at speed in this new “open” direction. He is a man truly stuck between a rock and a hard place.
I’m any event, if it weren’t for DeepSeek there is no way that Altman would be moving at speed in this new “open” direction. He is a man truly stuck between a rock and a hard place.
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
Second Nostr Anniversary. Where did all that time go?
For all out there interested in following what’s happening in #China I’ll keep plugging away.
Much love to all.
For all out there interested in following what’s happening in #China I’ll keep plugging away.
Much love to all.
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Afternoon Missive
Here we have RAND as the latest to weigh in on rationalizing why it is China is working aggressively to modernize its military.
Most who weight in on this subject focus on claims that Beijing is seeking to move militarily on Taiwan in 2027. If you can actually recognize how it was that Hong Kong was ultimately brought to heel by the Chinese leadership, then you know that all the talk of “2027” is pure American war mongering.
Now we have RAND stating that the build up is for the expressed purpose of ensuring the Communist Party’s internal control through pure might. I’d say that this goal has already been achieved thanks to technology.
Allow me to provide a third option for why Beijing has decided to rapidly accelerate the modernization of its military. To fortify its national defensive
Here we have RAND as the latest to weigh in on rationalizing why it is China is working aggressively to modernize its military.
Most who weight in on this subject focus on claims that Beijing is seeking to move militarily on Taiwan in 2027. If you can actually recognize how it was that Hong Kong was ultimately brought to heel by the Chinese leadership, then you know that all the talk of “2027” is pure American war mongering.
Now we have RAND stating that the build up is for the expressed purpose of ensuring the Communist Party’s internal control through pure might. I’d say that this goal has already been achieved thanks to technology.
Allow me to provide a third option for why Beijing has decided to rapidly accelerate the modernization of its military. To fortify its national defensive
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Morning Missive
This week, much of the #China focus will be on a meeting between the country’s tech leaders and the Beijing political class including Xi Jinping.
It would be very accurate to say that this meeting looks to have been hastily thrown together. Yet another outcome of the entire DeepSeek development. Even China’s prodigal son Jack Ma will be attending. There’s a great story there I’ll need to share at some point. Suffice it to say that the western media coverage of the Ant Financial IPO being derailed by Beijing, and Jack Ma’s fall from grace was selective in what was and was not included.
This meeting, however, could prove to be a much needed catalyst to reinvigorate household sentiment. While economic activity in China isn’t anywhere as bad as you may be reading elsewhere, it most certainly isn’t great. Then again,
This week, much of the #China focus will be on a meeting between the country’s tech leaders and the Beijing political class including Xi Jinping.
It would be very accurate to say that this meeting looks to have been hastily thrown together. Yet another outcome of the entire DeepSeek development. Even China’s prodigal son Jack Ma will be attending. There’s a great story there I’ll need to share at some point. Suffice it to say that the western media coverage of the Ant Financial IPO being derailed by Beijing, and Jack Ma’s fall from grace was selective in what was and was not included.
This meeting, however, could prove to be a much needed catalyst to reinvigorate household sentiment. While economic activity in China isn’t anywhere as bad as you may be reading elsewhere, it most certainly isn’t great. Then again,
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Weekend Missive
Been a number cultural developments out of #China over the past month.
It all kicked off with the whole “TikTok refugee” migration over to RedNote. That was then quickly followed by DeepSeek bursting into the scene and BYD introducing “God Eye” self driving. Now we have the cinema and Ne Zha 2. So far the movie has pulled in over $1.5bn on ticket sales, granted primarily in China.
Not at all what I had expected and who knows what might come next.
https://m.imdb.com/news/ni65130354/?ref_=tt_nwr_1
Been a number cultural developments out of #China over the past month.
It all kicked off with the whole “TikTok refugee” migration over to RedNote. That was then quickly followed by DeepSeek bursting into the scene and BYD introducing “God Eye” self driving. Now we have the cinema and Ne Zha 2. So far the movie has pulled in over $1.5bn on ticket sales, granted primarily in China.
Not at all what I had expected and who knows what might come next.
https://m.imdb.com/news/ni65130354/?ref_=tt_nwr_1
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
Shanghai. Cold. Rain.
Perfect night for hotpot with friends.
Perfect night for hotpot with friends.
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Evening Missive
In what can assuredly be described as “of course this would be the American policy play” I present Exhibit A
If you can’t actually compete, well then just shut down the “threat”.
This is not the America where I grew up.
JD Vance says U.S. will defend American AI and block efforts to weaponize the tech https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/11/jd-vance-us-will-defend-american-ai-block-weaponization-of-tech.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
In what can assuredly be described as “of course this would be the American policy play” I present Exhibit A
If you can’t actually compete, well then just shut down the “threat”.
This is not the America where I grew up.
JD Vance says U.S. will defend American AI and block efforts to weaponize the tech https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/11/jd-vance-us-will-defend-american-ai-block-weaponization-of-tech.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Morning Missive
The greatest benefit from the throngs of Americans jumping on RedNote is how quickly errant tropes of #China have been blown apart.
The perfect example is the “social credit score”. I can’t even begin to tell you all how many times I’ve had to explain to clients and others that this simply doesn’t exist. And yet, how many times have you seen headlines and social media commentary on Twitter or elsewhere making the claim that a Chinese social credit score runs the lives of all everyday Chinese.
Between RedNote and DeepSeek, there’s been a genuine awareness that most of what the American media covers in regards of China is just articulated fabrications.
The greatest benefit from the throngs of Americans jumping on RedNote is how quickly errant tropes of #China have been blown apart.
The perfect example is the “social credit score”. I can’t even begin to tell you all how many times I’ve had to explain to clients and others that this simply doesn’t exist. And yet, how many times have you seen headlines and social media commentary on Twitter or elsewhere making the claim that a Chinese social credit score runs the lives of all everyday Chinese.
Between RedNote and DeepSeek, there’s been a genuine awareness that most of what the American media covers in regards of China is just articulated fabrications.
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
Might the public tides be turning?
Surprised to find that CNBC posted my #China interview clip on YouTube. Doesn’t always happen. Came in this morning and noticed there were a fair number of comments.
This is just a small sample. Message might be getting through and off just a 90 sec clip.
Surprised to find that CNBC posted my #China interview clip on YouTube. Doesn’t always happen. Came in this morning and noticed there were a fair number of comments.
This is just a small sample. Message might be getting through and off just a 90 sec clip.
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Evening Missive
Well, Xi Jinping didn’t accept Trump’s invitation to the inaugural, but he has accepted Putin’s May 9th invitation to the 80th anniversary of the “Victory in the Great Patriotic War” AKA the defeat of the Nazis.
Perhaps not an apples-to apples comparison, but it is also rare for a Chinese President to publicly accept any invitation months in advance of an event. No question that there’s a host of pieces on the board of the Great Game being played here at the same time.
If, and it is a big IF, this gets picked up by the American press you can be assured that there’ll be a message. Rather than see this as it is, leaders of the very broad coalition against the Rules Based International Order meeting, the dangerous meeting of America’s enemies.
For me, this is just
Well, Xi Jinping didn’t accept Trump’s invitation to the inaugural, but he has accepted Putin’s May 9th invitation to the 80th anniversary of the “Victory in the Great Patriotic War” AKA the defeat of the Nazis.
Perhaps not an apples-to apples comparison, but it is also rare for a Chinese President to publicly accept any invitation months in advance of an event. No question that there’s a host of pieces on the board of the Great Game being played here at the same time.
If, and it is a big IF, this gets picked up by the American press you can be assured that there’ll be a message. Rather than see this as it is, leaders of the very broad coalition against the Rules Based International Order meeting, the dangerous meeting of America’s enemies.
For me, this is just
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
The Economist never fails nor disappoints. Cover here is from 2015.
The road to calling the collapse of #China is littered with more dead bodies than I can count.
The road to calling the collapse of #China is littered with more dead bodies than I can count.
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
Saying the quiet part out loud.
Not that anyone in Trump World is listening.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/02/10/china-has-the-upper-hand-against-us-tariffs-says-consultancy.html
Not that anyone in Trump World is listening.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2025/02/10/china-has-the-upper-hand-against-us-tariffs-says-consultancy.html
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
Having to hit the ground running here in #China first thing on Monday. Already feel like I’ve run a marathon and haven’t even had my second coffee yet.
A great week ahead to you all.
A great week ahead to you all.
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Afternoon Missive
I had mentioned in a previous Note that there are a number of pressure points China can apply in a retaliatory trade conflict with America. Specifically, I mentioned that China manufactures 50% of the world’s antibiotics. I also mentioned that China had learned its lesson during Covid and the blowback that came when limits were placed on exporting PPE to the United States. For the time being, such an approach – direct pain to the American populace – is to be eschewed.
Come to find out even the minimal tariff of 10% on all Chinese imports has elicited a quick reaction from America’s medical and hospital communities.
Quoting from this Reuters article “The American Hospital Association wrote in a letter to Trump on Tuesday that the tariffs will affect cancer and heart medicines as well as antibiotics like amoxicillin from China.”
I had mentioned in a previous Note that there are a number of pressure points China can apply in a retaliatory trade conflict with America. Specifically, I mentioned that China manufactures 50% of the world’s antibiotics. I also mentioned that China had learned its lesson during Covid and the blowback that came when limits were placed on exporting PPE to the United States. For the time being, such an approach – direct pain to the American populace – is to be eschewed.
Come to find out even the minimal tariff of 10% on all Chinese imports has elicited a quick reaction from America’s medical and hospital communities.
Quoting from this Reuters article “The American Hospital Association wrote in a letter to Trump on Tuesday that the tariffs will affect cancer and heart medicines as well as antibiotics like amoxicillin from China.”
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
The War for TikTok in America - #5
This, slow rolling the sale, was expected and yet should be viewed as just one front in the war over this dominate social media platform.
Leverage. It is that simple. With numerous parties vying over buying the American TikTok platform, the Chinese know the value of this platform and the role it can play in gaining a real advantage in the much larger trade conflict with America.
A point that I’ve not seen mentioned in all the media coverage is that TikTok parent ByteDance is 60% owned by foreign investors. Susquehanna Capital alone owns 15% of ByteDance. There’s real money at stake and incentives, you would think, are more than a little aligned. In the end, however, any deal will need to be approved by the Beijing ministerial powers.
Then there is the issue
This, slow rolling the sale, was expected and yet should be viewed as just one front in the war over this dominate social media platform.
Leverage. It is that simple. With numerous parties vying over buying the American TikTok platform, the Chinese know the value of this platform and the role it can play in gaining a real advantage in the much larger trade conflict with America.
A point that I’ve not seen mentioned in all the media coverage is that TikTok parent ByteDance is 60% owned by foreign investors. Susquehanna Capital alone owns 15% of ByteDance. There’s real money at stake and incentives, you would think, are more than a little aligned. In the end, however, any deal will need to be approved by the Beijing ministerial powers.
Then there is the issue
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Morning Missive
Very surprised to see an actual story on #China that matches with the reality on the ground.
For a number of years all we’ve seen in the Western media are claims that Beijing has strangled the entire private sector. While a number of individuals have seen their wings clipped, there remains a highly vibrant community of small companies developing a host of new products and services. DeepSeek is just one of thousands of examples.
Much as the author states, and a point I’ve been hammering on for quite some time (Keynes is Dead in China!!) “The Chinese economy is in the process of massive structural change and change on a scale and pace that inevitably creates dislocations”.
American leadership needs to quickly learn that China isn’t in a period of decline. Beijing leadership simply recognized that the economic model
Very surprised to see an actual story on #China that matches with the reality on the ground.
For a number of years all we’ve seen in the Western media are claims that Beijing has strangled the entire private sector. While a number of individuals have seen their wings clipped, there remains a highly vibrant community of small companies developing a host of new products and services. DeepSeek is just one of thousands of examples.
Much as the author states, and a point I’ve been hammering on for quite some time (Keynes is Dead in China!!) “The Chinese economy is in the process of massive structural change and change on a scale and pace that inevitably creates dislocations”.
American leadership needs to quickly learn that China isn’t in a period of decline. Beijing leadership simply recognized that the economic model
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China (very late) Evening Missive
Why? This just isn’t necessary.
Contrary to the US talking points, the escalation of tensions in the South China Sea centers on American forces deploying several missile batteries on the upper north tip of Luzon island in the Philippines. A short distance to Taiwan.
There continues to be a policy of poking and prodding which I can only surmise is an attempt by America to have China “react”. Perhaps not exactly the same comparison, but I do find it similar to how the US played games with Russia over Ukraine.
Honestly, I’ve been surprised at the relatively subdued response to all of this by China.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-philippines-b1-bomber-south-china-sea-warning-2026315
Why? This just isn’t necessary.
Contrary to the US talking points, the escalation of tensions in the South China Sea centers on American forces deploying several missile batteries on the upper north tip of Luzon island in the Philippines. A short distance to Taiwan.
There continues to be a policy of poking and prodding which I can only surmise is an attempt by America to have China “react”. Perhaps not exactly the same comparison, but I do find it similar to how the US played games with Russia over Ukraine.
Honestly, I’ve been surprised at the relatively subdued response to all of this by China.
https://www.newsweek.com/us-philippines-b1-bomber-south-china-sea-warning-2026315
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
More evidence of a full reversal of the American “socially acceptable” pendulum swing.
Hot girl Carls Jr ads are back!!
Hot girl Carls Jr ads are back!!
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Peter Alexander
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2mo ago
China Morning Missive
This is the sort of development the Chinese had expected out of the US and why none should expect Beijing to agree to any sort of formal negotiations.
It isn’t just that the US Postal Service reversed course on the decision to restrict deliveries from China and Hong Kong. The idea is that there are inconsistencies throughout the various government agencies when it comes to policy and how policy should be executed upon.
This is clear signaling of dysfunction and Beijing will eat this up.
Reminds me of the art of Tai Chi. Use your opponent’s energy to disarm them and take the fullest advantage. No need to exert your own energy when you can simply flow with an opposing force.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-postal-service-suspends-incoming-packages-china-hong-kong-2025-02-05/
This is the sort of development the Chinese had expected out of the US and why none should expect Beijing to agree to any sort of formal negotiations.
It isn’t just that the US Postal Service reversed course on the decision to restrict deliveries from China and Hong Kong. The idea is that there are inconsistencies throughout the various government agencies when it comes to policy and how policy should be executed upon.
This is clear signaling of dysfunction and Beijing will eat this up.
Reminds me of the art of Tai Chi. Use your opponent’s energy to disarm them and take the fullest advantage. No need to exert your own energy when you can simply flow with an opposing force.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-postal-service-suspends-incoming-packages-china-hong-kong-2025-02-05/
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Peter Alexander
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3mo ago
Need to reiterate the following to any/all who are new to Nostr.
Engagement with the community is critical. A “lurker’s” mentality will result in a very sub-par experience.
Say whatever you want. Post notes on whatever is your subject matter expertise. Be weird, whatever that might mean. Just engage on a regular basis.
This is a message I have to keep reminding myself too.
Engagement with the community is critical. A “lurker’s” mentality will result in a very sub-par experience.
Say whatever you want. Post notes on whatever is your subject matter expertise. Be weird, whatever that might mean. Just engage on a regular basis.
This is a message I have to keep reminding myself too.
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Peter Alexander
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Aug 22, 2024
Back in the States to sell the family home. So many memories.
You want to keep everything.
Gut punch!
Still, can hear Mom and Dad saying “it’s time for another family to build their own memories.”
You want to keep everything.
Gut punch!
Still, can hear Mom and Dad saying “it’s time for another family to build their own memories.”
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Peter Alexander
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Jun 18, 2024
Shanghai isn’t “back”. It never left. For sure the foreign community has been culled. Then again, not sure that’s a bad thing. What remains is all that truly matters.
For all of you who have not yet returned to visit I again am strongly recommending that you book that ticket.
Now, back to my Maotai with friends.
For all of you who have not yet returned to visit I again am strongly recommending that you book that ticket.
Now, back to my Maotai with friends.
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Peter Alexander
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May 23, 2024
Here we go again.
The Beijing playbook remains the same. When politics in Taiwan go against the "wishes" of the Mainland the next step is to conduct train exercises that center on surrounding the island.
Suspect that there will be a ton of bloviating out of Washington in the next 24 hours.
Rinse. Repeat.
The Beijing playbook remains the same. When politics in Taiwan go against the "wishes" of the Mainland the next step is to conduct train exercises that center on surrounding the island.
Suspect that there will be a ton of bloviating out of Washington in the next 24 hours.
Rinse. Repeat.
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Peter Alexander
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Apr 15, 2024
Here we go.
And the ETF approval is probably behind the jump in price just now.
And the ETF approval is probably behind the jump in price just now.
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Peter Alexander
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Apr 10, 2024
Twitter/X is clearly a tough habit to break. A ton of high profile Bitcoiners who remain addicted to the engagement feedback loop and their audience while popping into Nostr once a week (if that).
Very telling.
Very telling.
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Peter Alexander
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Apr 3, 2024
There we go…. 
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Peter Alexander
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Mar 30, 2024
Appreciate that and appreciate you and everyone here.
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Peter Alexander
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Mar 30, 2024
Thanks man. Am ecstatic for my son and his wife. I married young and they married young. Grandfather at 53 is pretty surreal.
But my boys - the two of them - make my heart sing daily. I just wish I was more present than I was. Don’t get me wrong. Was a decently present father, but when you’re the breadwinner you also think back on how you could have been there more.
But my boys - the two of them - make my heart sing daily. I just wish I was more present than I was. Don’t get me wrong. Was a decently present father, but when you’re the breadwinner you also think back on how you could have been there more.
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Peter Alexander
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Mar 27, 2024
Um, I’ve fallen for this. You’re debating with a bot I believe.
Also, unconditional love is what it’s all about.
Also, unconditional love is what it’s all about.
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Peter Alexander
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Mar 27, 2024
Trying driving in Shanghai.
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Peter Alexander
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Mar 25, 2024
I try to go quality (no offense) but suspect your approach is better. More an outcome of my age than anything else.
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Peter Alexander
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Mar 25, 2024
Totally agree. Asian hours for us is super slow. You can put out notes and it seems like they just disappear into the ether.
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Peter Alexander
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Mar 24, 2024
And how did the #China ban work out? Can tell you that it is still traded p2p here locally.
Decentralization for the win.
Decentralization for the win.
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Peter Alexander
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Mar 21, 2024
Totally agree and the irony is that #China actually is open with this being its objective. As policy, the aim is to commercial engage - not at all evenly - to stockpile resources. America has the same aims, but cloaks its mission in the “protecting democracy” dogma.
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Peter Alexander
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Mar 18, 2024
My man. Do yoga twice a week for two months and then there’s no going back. The best kind of addiction.
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Peter Alexander
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Mar 18, 2024
All depends on where you choose to go. What direction. In terms of yoga you just feel lighter both physically and mentally after a session.
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Peter Alexander
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Mar 7, 2024
Philosophically speaking, are any of us stacking hard enough?
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Peter Alexander
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Jan 17, 2024
This guy is nothing but pure class. 
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Peter Alexander
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Aug 21, 2023
I’m in. How much is needed?
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