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Lyn Alden

Founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy. Partner at Ego Death Capital. Finance/Engineering blended background.

216 Following

95.4k Followers

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Lyn Alden

14h ago

Stocks down, bonds down, and currency strength down simultaneously represents a balance of payments problem.

It’s the type of thing that usually happens to emerging markets.

Anyway, GM.

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Lyn Alden

14h ago

What are your favorite negative character arcs?

A negative character arc is one where the protagonist gets worse over time rather than better. They might or might not turn for the better in the end, but the majority of the time is spent on a negative descent.

A well-done example would be Frodo. The ring wears him down through the course of the story.

An example that should have been good but wasn’t executed as well as it should have been, would be Anakin in the Star Wars prequel.

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Lyn Alden

1d ago

GM.

Chapter 13 of Broken Money is called "Heavy is the Head that Wears the Crown".

It focuses on the US trade deficit and why it arises structurally. In short, since the USD is the global reserve currency (for reserve assets, international contracts, FX trading pairs, and cross-border funding), there is tremendous automatic demand for USD in the world compared to other fiat currencies.

To supply the world with that ever-growing need for USD to service all sorts of needs, the United States runs structural trade deficits with the rest of the world. That's how the USD spills out to the rest of the world for them to use. And the mechanism for that is that the overvalued USD boosts Americans' import power, reduces Americans' low-margin export competiveness, and basically forces open that trade deficit.

That trade deficit is the cost of

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Lyn Alden

2d ago

Taiwanese folk metal.

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Lyn Alden

2d ago

Today I found out that Mantis from Guardians of the Galaxy, and Paris the psychotic assassin from Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning, are the same actress.

That's it. That's the note.

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Lyn Alden

2d ago

My fireside with Anthony Scaramucci and Peter Diamondis on bitcoin at the Abundance 360 Summit is now available here.

Notably, this was largely toward a non-bitcoin audience, a very tech-focused audience. Much of it will be basic for people here but it was tailored to that group.

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Lyn Alden

Noshole

3d ago

Nobody can sing it like Billie, but it’s fun to try.

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Lyn Alden

3d ago

Many people ask why.

The short answer is because nothing stops this train.

The longer answer is that 1) the rest of the world isn’t buying as many Treasuries anymore, 2) investors prefer cash to Treasuries, and 3) there are now balance of payments issues and so the United Stated has EM-like characteristics where stocks and bonds can struggle together due to capital outflows.

Lyn Alden

3d ago

The fact that bond yields are UP today is the most noteworthy thing, imo.

el

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Lyn Alden

3d ago

The fact that bond yields are UP today is the most noteworthy thing, imo.

el

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Lyn Alden

4d ago

Currently listening while I work:

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Lyn Alden

5d ago

A lot of people, including some really well known ones, cite the figure that the U.S. has to roll $9 trillion in debt over the next 12 months, as though it’s a disaster.

Sometimes they assume the average interest rate is spread over the full Treasury debt duration evenly, including from years ago.

But in reality, most of what is maturing is short-term debt, which will have similar interest rates as it had over the past couple years, and mostly the same holders will refinance it. Only a minority is longer-term debt, meaning lower-rate bonds will mature and get refinanced by higher-rate bonds. Not a giant deal.

I’m first in line to talk about debts, deficits, and interest expense becoming a problem. I even have probably the best-known single meme about it. So, zooming out, yes it’s a major deal.

But most

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Lyn Alden

6d ago

I remember back when Israel went into Gaza, and markets took a hit, bitcoin was down notably and many tradfi macro folks who I otherwise respect for good market analysis were like “Why is bitcoin down today? I thought it’s a safe haven, lol.”

Similarly, today when bitcoin is up amid market turmoil, the bitcoin bulls celebrate it.

I’d be cautious about all one-day moves. If you over-emphasize them, you risk looking like someone with a memory of a goldfish, or otherwise operating with selection bias.

However, a point I have made in the past, and will repeat today, is that there are different types of risk-off events. A risk-off event that hurts liquidity is likely to hurt bitcoin. A risk-off event that demands more liquidity, or that is unrelated to liquidity (eg tariffs attacking corporate margins), is more likely to benefit or at

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Lyn Alden

Neil Jacobs

1w ago

Bitcoin shifts power back to the people.

🔥 @Lyn Alden:

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Lyn Alden

6d ago

A lot of market participants expect capitulation from Trump, but imo the more likely outcome is little/no capitulation, at least for a while, but instead attempts at shifting the blame of the costs and some mild verbal capitulations to calm market a bit. Like it's the Fed's fault for not cutting rates, and things like that.

Rebalancing decades of imbalanced trade policy does not happen without pain. The issue is that the administration marketed it as being relatively painless, as any politicians would. And many voters bought into it. So it's not to an easy problem, and it's a noble goal, but there was a mismatch between what was promised and what is possible, as is often the case.

Some interesting semi-capitulation points to watch: will Bessent maintain the high rate of Tbill issuance for liquidity that he criticized Yellen for? Will Trump shake out his

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Lyn Alden

Sooly⚡️سولي

6d ago

Current mood.
@Lyn Alden
el

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Lyn Alden

6d ago

Went back to the grocery store today but couldn’t find this cashier.

Instead, I ran into the trope of the “little old lady” counting out pennies and holding the line up.

And you know what? Good for her. Probably one of the most based people in the store. Keeping private means of payment alive.

Lyn Alden

1w ago

Had an interesting interaction with a cashier today.

This young man in his 20s was ringing people up. His voice and mannerisms were basically like Napoleon Dynamite.

In front of me, the customer said “thank you, have a good day” and he said back “that would be impossible, but you have a good day ma’am.” I was only half paying attention so I assumed I misheard.

He then rang my products up as I focused on packing my bags. I pay and say basically “thanks, have a good day”. He says, “that would be impossible ma’am, but you have a good day.”

I paused, hearing the repeated statement. He started scanning the next customer’s items. Part of me wanted to ask why it’s impossible to have a nice day. It’s so specific. But doing so would interrupt his focus on the next

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Lyn Alden

Max DeMarco

1w ago

As a content creator it’s really hard to balance the line between catering to an algorithm and creating for the art of creating

perfect example — i spent a couple hours trying different titles, nothing really stuck. wasn’t fully happy with any of them. then i posted it, got feedback, changed it — and the new one is just way better. thanks @Lyn Alden

this is the difference. on nostr you’re able to post what you think. no second-guessing what’s gonna perform. it’s raw. people like it, hate it, ignore it. that’s it.

on youtube i don’t even get to that point. if i don’t play the game, the content doesn’t get seen at all. the algorithm kills it before people can even decide for themselves

that’s why this place matters

Lyn Alden

1w ago

When collaborative content creators are on Nostr, it’s easier to give them feedback. The smaller audience aspect of it here is ironically a feature because I can be more blunt, while sharing it elsewhere.

Tomorrow I’m going to pin this interview to my Twitter/X profile for a month, due to title changes made from Nostr feedback here.

Sure, I could give feedback via email or DM, but if you’ve seen my emails and DMs, and the sheer amount of stuff there, you’d see why I suck on those fronts and am not very responsive aside from close contacts.

I have a couple favorite summaries of my Broken Money content that I point people to if they don’t want to read a 500 page finance book.

-One was a key Princeton talk I gave last year. It set a new video record for

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Lyn Alden

Gigi

1w ago

Mempool full: Bitcoin can't scale.
Mempool empty: Bitcoin is dead.

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Lyn Alden

corndalorian

1w ago


el

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Lyn Alden

1w ago

When collaborative content creators are on Nostr, it’s easier to give them feedback. The smaller audience aspect of it here is ironically a feature because I can be more blunt, while sharing it elsewhere.

Tomorrow I’m going to pin this interview to my Twitter/X profile for a month, due to title changes made from Nostr feedback here.

Sure, I could give feedback via email or DM, but if you’ve seen my emails and DMs, and the sheer amount of stuff there, you’d see why I suck on those fronts and am not very responsive aside from close contacts.

I have a couple favorite summaries of my Broken Money content that I point people to if they don’t want to read a 500 page finance book.

-One was a key Princeton talk I gave last year. It set a new video record for

... See more

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Lyn Alden

Max DeMarco

1w ago

$13 trillion on war over the past two decades:
Funded by inflation, hidden taxes and silent theft.

This is how fiat money became a weapon.

In this episode with @Lyn Alden

- How money fuels endless wars
- Why the system was built to control you
- The path to opt out

Full interview:

Powered by @Bitcoin Well

You get the chance of winning 1.000.000 sats when signing up to Bitcoin Well while stacking sats directly into your cold storage:

https://bitcoinwell.com/maxdemarco

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Lyn Alden

1w ago

A year ago at the Madeira conference, I filmed an in-person interview.

It was published today, and I think it's the best interview I did in 2024.

It's documentary style, and so editing compressed it in a good way. This interview, focused on evergreen content, walks through the Broken Money thesis in 50 minutes, whereas the full Broken Money audiobook is over 17 hours. An exploration of monetary technology on history, and how it impacts us today socially, economically, and politically.

As is usual for my interviews that appear on YouTube, I don't love the title. It mentions a "$13 trillion time bomb", which in the context of the interview referred to Brown University's estimate for what the War on Terror will have cost by 2050, with interest expense.

But the content was key. My most locked-in interview of 2024.

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Lyn Alden

1w ago

Whenever you start something with a statistically low chance of success, whether it's starting a business or writing a book or landing some dream job, it starts with unironically going through this filter:

el

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Lyn Alden

1w ago

Had an interesting interaction with a cashier today.

This young man in his 20s was ringing people up. His voice and mannerisms were basically like Napoleon Dynamite.

In front of me, the customer said “thank you, have a good day” and he said back “that would be impossible, but you have a good day ma’am.” I was only half paying attention so I assumed I misheard.

He then rang my products up as I focused on packing my bags. I pay and say basically “thanks, have a good day”. He says, “that would be impossible ma’am, but you have a good day.”

I paused, hearing the repeated statement. He started scanning the next customer’s items. Part of me wanted to ask why it’s impossible to have a nice day. It’s so specific. But doing so would interrupt his focus on the next

... See more

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Lyn Alden

1w ago

“You can just do things” is one of my favorite meme phrases that I see out there.

Back around my senior year of high school, I consciously decided to shift to that mindset. I went from kind of operating within rules, and trying to leave a light touch around me, to being more assertive and creative about what I want to do. It was kind of a quiet “I’m not locked in here with you, you’re locked in here with me” vibe shift.

At the time I think the terminology I filtered it through was Sagan’s pale blue dot. Like, everything that has ever been done is on this crazy little ball spinning through space. So it’s okay to just do things, to take chances, to think outside of the box. Because the box itself is already actually kind of crazy.

And then in

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Lyn Alden

Trey Walsh

1w ago

I often find myself longing for the 90s and the childhood I had.

I forgot where I heard this, perhaps abundance from Ezra Klein, but this is the first time in history where generations in the U.S. are consistently looking back, longing for days past, rather than looking forward with hope and optimism.

The 90s were more affordable, more prosperous for everyone, less global conflict, less anxiety/depression, etc.

The one positive I feel, as our world shifts away from the world I once knew, is that local town centers and creators are starting to thrive in some places, and less malls dept stores, etc. That gives me hope. I’ll focus more on the local and my community, and less from this national and global chaos. It’s the only thing that keeps me sane.

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Lyn Alden

1w ago

I find myself in this situation in Egypt sometimes.

I’ll be at a buffet and they have one type of butter packet, and it has soybean oil in it.

So I’m at my table with family or friends basically being the Karen like “how do they not have even one *proper* butter option?”

HODL

1w ago


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Lyn Alden

Jeff Booth

1w ago

Visited my father in law (who was born in 1944) this week and found this.
el

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Lyn Alden

1w ago

My March newsletter talks mainly about AI, and some of the nuances between datacenter AI and portable AI.
https://www.lynalden.com/march-2025-newsletter/

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Lyn Alden

1w ago


el

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Lyn Alden

walker

2w ago

“The Big Print” audiobook is now LIVE!

Thank you @Lawrence Lepard for giving me the opportunity to give voice to your words — you wrote a damn fine book.

To anyone who hasn’t read the book yet, I hope you will listen to it and share it with your friends, family, and strangers on the internet. And if you’ve already read it, I hope you’ll listen to it again for good measure.

https://a.co/d/db65sT0

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Lyn Alden

corndalorian

2w ago

Gm ☕️ Welcome them when they join. Believe them when they stay. 😂🫡

el

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Lyn Alden

2w ago

Part of why I’m bullish is because I only know half of what ya’ll are doing, and it keeps getting better from that perspective.

I look for risks and dig into things, but overall like the technical trend vs what else I see out there.

Gigi

2w ago

Nostr achieved so much in so little time. Ya'll are too close to the metal. Step back. Zoom out. Appreciate what we have and where we are.

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Lyn Alden

Gigi

2w ago

Nostr achieved so much in so little time. Ya'll are too close to the metal. Step back. Zoom out. Appreciate what we have and where we are.

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Lyn Alden

UNCLE ROCKSTAR

2w ago

Replying to @Lyn Alden

it was all worth it in the end:
el

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Lyn Alden

2w ago

ChatGPT can’t be all that smart, since it keeps trying to show my left ear.

Also titled as, me trying and failing to be productive today.

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Lyn Alden

sitting at an airport bar

2w ago

Finally have a day off from slavery and I had all these plans of things I was gonna do but here I am. @Lyn Alden 😆
el

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Lyn Alden

2w ago

I appreciate all the comments on this thread. I’ll go back and reference it numerous times probably.

Hardly anyone wanted to highlight moves they think deserve a bit less hype. That’s always harder.

As a very unpopular set of views, I’ll give two of my answers that I didn’t see referenced. These aren’t my only answers, but I’m picking them for the spice.

-I think Cloud Atlas is underrated.

-I think Dark Knight is overrated.

Now, before you shoot me, I will provide an important caveat. I love Dark Knight more than Cloud Atlas. However, I think that Dark Knight is a bit overrated, and Cloud Atlas is a bit underrated.

Dark Knight is often considered close to a 10/10 whereas I’d say it’s a 9/10. I can list a ton of plot holes.

Cloud Atlas

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Lyn Alden

2w ago

-What’s a movie from the past 25 years that hasn’t gotten enough attention in your view? Something that punches way above its weight. 😇

-The spicier question. What’s a movie from that same time period that is very popular, including kind of in your own social circle, that you think is kind of mid or overrated but it’s too awkward to say, but you’ll drop it in a Nostr comment? 😈

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Lyn Alden

2w ago

I find the nation state and corporate treasury adoption story pretty boring.

It’s not because I disagree with it. Once a liquid asset reaches this scale, it’s natural for larger entities to want to own it.

A lot of people actively *don’t want* those big entities to buy it, which I think is kind of delusional since it’s a permissionless asset. Those anti-treasurers don’t find it boring; it’s their new thing to argue against.

And yet at the same time I have little interest in talking about them buying it. Yes, I think more of them will over time.

So I just find the topic boring. Neither for or against. Would rather focus on other uses of bitcoin.

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Lyn Alden

2w ago

My Nostr post from two years ago where I criticized Elon (which was probably the only time I ever lost my temper online, being actively censored, and still stand by it) is getting a lot of new replies lately. People agreeing or disagreeing, etc.

It seems to be an influx of users, rather than a resurgence of the post itself.

Noting this because it’s statistically interesting.

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Lyn Alden

2w ago

It’s been about five years now since Swan Bitcoin opened their doors and started doing business.

In addition to successes, they ran into various frictions and controversies during that time due to limitations at their counter parties that they had to work through and upscale from, but at the end of the day, they have promoted self custody from the start, still do, and people can withdraw their sats safe and sound. They want you to, and you should, ideally.

Their vision from founding was that sats probably shouldn’t be on the balance sheet liability side of a startup (them) and instead should be in qualified custodians held in buyers’ names, to the extent that they’re not self custodied. They made it free to pull sats into self custody from the start and have a really high ratio of buyers pulling into self custody.

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Lyn Alden

2w ago

Whenever someone emails the Lyn Alden support email, this is who they are dealing with.

He’s judging you for your bad technical decisions.*

*And then afterward will tell me my choice of backend software is retarded.

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Lyn Alden

7

2w ago

Replying to @Lyn Alden

I saw this meme on X & the top panel totally made me think of you. I’m not sure if that was intentional by the creator or not.

el

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Lyn Alden

gladstein

2w ago

**For collectors of cool Bitcoin things**

I am excited to announce the limited release of an anthology of my books and essays

I have been working for a year with @Skyler on these

He did an incredible job making each book a true work of art

We produced 100 total copies, and 50 signed copies will go on sale at Scarce City on Monday at 12pm PT

All proceeds will go to support open source devs via HRF’s Bitcoin Development Fund

Link below :)

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Lyn Alden

2w ago

I agree with this take.

I would add that connections matter. I see many people on Nostr say that blue-checks still use Twitter mainly for audience reach. They’re addicted to the reach, and so forth.

While I do love the dunking on blue-checks overall (as a blue-check myself, it amuses me and you should keep it coming), I’d point out that it’s more than that.

When I was temporarily locked out of my 700k+ follower permissioned account on Twitter, I didn’t lose sleep over not being able to broadcast to people. I have email lists and other mechanisms for that, where it economically matters.

What I lost sleep over is that I couldn’t see my friends’ posts or DMs. The *receiver* side of it all.

Similarly, when people ask me why I don’t just leave Twitter and be Nostr exclusive,

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Lyn Alden

2w ago

I try to take as many calls as possible while walking these days.

Steven Lubka got me into it. Definitely recommend where possible.

npub1xtscy

2w ago

Might as well go for a walk if you have 2 hours of calls

el

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Lyn Alden

3w ago

I get a ton of questions about my husband. As a somewhat public figure I suck at privacy, while he is a privacy maxi.

He’s my main editor, oversees support on my website, and yet quietly is like “nah, don’t want any attention.”

In 2021 when I went to a dinner/meeting at Saylor’s house, my husband dropped me off and then picked me up as my personal ride. To Saylor’s credit, he came out personally at night to make sure I was safe while I waited on the curb for a ride, as his only female guest that night and Miami at night can be challenging.

The next day my husband dropped me off at some VC event and my friend Elizabeth Stark was aware enough to be like “you got out of the front seat of that uber. It wasn’t an uber, was

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Lyn Alden

3w ago

One of the things I find most challenging in fiction lately is over-editing.

Like, I managed to write my thing, but no I’m not stephen king; so I’m always looking for areas to improve.

Under-editing would risk plot holes or other major issues. I would only publish something I put a ton of thought into.

Over-editing risks detracting from author voice.

I send drafts to my husband, since we’re currently apart due to a construction project, and he’s one of the few people that amuses me because he’ll literally comment on my manuscript with brutal inside jokes like “I know you were raised poor and you don’t know better, but this change would be retarded, you should revert” or “I get what you’re doing here, but ultimately you should respect the reader. This edit would be incorrect. Go out and touch grass instead of propose bad changes like this.”

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Lyn Alden

3w ago

Look at the zaps on the image.

I’m currently working through an email backlog and a Twitter/X DM backlog. Like, whatever it is, I love what you’re working on but I’m too busy.

Meanwhile:

Blockstream intern: “if I zap her 250 sats or 21 cents, she broadcasts about us. She finds it funny and also relevant for Nostr.”

Blockstream exec: “1) What”

Blockstream intern: “Literally, Lyn is meming about this exchange right now. She said good stuff about the Jade Plus. I tried to send her one on Twitter and she ignored it, and yet I just had to zap about it, look, she keeps posting about it.”
el

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Lyn Alden

3w ago

“Look, it only cost $154.27, to advertise on Nostr, but now Lyn Alden won’t stop memeing about us there. It’s our best ROI ever.”

“1) What”

“She’s literally advertising about our our advertisements. Months ago I DMed her on Twitter and offered to send her our new Jade unit, and she never got back to me, like didn’t even fucking respond, I think we got lost in the void there, but just zapping comments on Nostr amuses her and gets her to talk about it a ton now.”

Whichever intern did this deserves a raise.
el

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Lyn Alden

3w ago

Stablecoins quietly the biggest attack ever on fractional reserve banking, and I’m here for it.

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