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npub1dq0vn
Nov 3, 2024
I mean the day-to-day variability
Prior to end of August you've got an eyeball variance of +/- 500 per day at the 95% confidence interval, superimposed on a linear trend
That started in January and lasted for 8 months
![el](https://i.nostr.build/Ob9JcteETwEQPzM8.jpg)
Then there's a step change to +/- 7,000 per day superimposed on I don't even know wtf to call that, which lasted about 2 months
Now it looks like we're back to +/- 500
I can't think of a reasonable model of human behaviour that would produce 10-fold step changes in variance
Prior to end of August you've got an eyeball variance of +/- 500 per day at the 95% confidence interval, superimposed on a linear trend
That started in January and lasted for 8 months
![el](https://i.nostr.build/Ob9JcteETwEQPzM8.jpg)
Then there's a step change to +/- 7,000 per day superimposed on I don't even know wtf to call that, which lasted about 2 months
Now it looks like we're back to +/- 500
I can't think of a reasonable model of human behaviour that would produce 10-fold step changes in variance
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